Reasons May Vary, But Markets Follow Technicals

Ever since the 23rd of January, when the Nifty was trading at around 6050, I predicted a deep correction in the markets. When other analysts were predicting that the markets may correct a bit and come down to 5950, I went ahead and gave a target of 4300. Crazy, wouldn't you call me? Call me whatever you may, I write what I feel about the markets. I don't care what effect it has on the sentiments of the people, I don't care what my readers will think about me, I just write what I feel. I know some will love me, and some will hate me, but nobody can ignore me. But let me ask you a question. If you were holding large positions in stocks and I tell you that we may go down to 5950, you may probably continue to hold on to your positions. At 5950, if I tell you we may go to 5800, you may probably still hold on and then I tell you that we may go to 5600, you might consider exiting your positions. But by that time you have already lost 300 points in the Nifty, and if you were holding small caps or mid caps then, God save you (because they are the first ones to come down). Wouldn't it be better that I tell you early on that such a scenario may exist so that you can exit your positions there only? You tell me what is better?

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Nifty Weakness Continuing, Next Target 5528

As I have been saying since over two months that the Nifty looks weak, the Nifty, as if listening to my analysis is doing exactly as I am predicting. This is not a good sign, at least not good for me. And the reason for that is that the market does not listen to any analyst and moves in a fashion known only to itself. And since there are a limited number of movements that the market can show, a few analysts may have their good days till the market decides to bring them back to Mother Earth. Not a good sign for me, because I'm having good days these days and only the market knows, how many days to prove me right. But, never mind that, my job is to analyse the markets and take trades in the direction of the trend and not try to fight and change the trend when the markets decide so. 

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How to Trade Using Risk-Reward-Ratio?

The market has a mind of its own. Which direction will it take in the future is unknown. Unknown not only to you, not only to me, but also to the best of analysts and astrologers. Yet you see the market full of such people who are trying to predict the markets, including yours truly. The reason why they are doing it is because it works, it actually works. But if you expect that you will get a positive result 100% of the times, then that is the biggest mistake you will be making. Technical Analysis, or for that matter, any technique, works most of the time but never 100% of the time. And that is the first and foremost thing that you and I need to understand.

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A View on the Forex (Foreign Currency) Markets

So, as expected, the market has fallen. It was probably holding on just because of the budget. As expected, the budget (being the last of the UPA - 2 regime), couldn't have been a reformist one. And because of the condition the country is in, it couldn't have been a populist one too. We are in dire need of money. With no reforms, it is sure to have an effect on the equity markets. Not only that, it will also affect the Forex markets and the Commodities markets. This post discusses just that - the effect of the Budget 2013 on the Equities, Commodities and Forex space.

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An Elliott Wave Analysis of the Markets

Some of my readers, sure, would be waiting for this post. I can say this because I had done an Elliott Wave Analysis of the markets once before and that post was a massive hit with my readers. A similar attempt is being made now on the current chart of Nifty. But a disclaimer goes with this post and that is that I'm not an expert on the Elliott Wave Principle. I have a little knowledge about it and I'm taking a risk of trying and numbering the waves with this little knowledge, a process which can even prove the best in the field wrong (at times). I would also advise my readers not to give too much of weightage to this post as the market may prove me wrong. But it still might turn out to be useful to read, in case my numbering turns out to be correct.

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