Showing posts with label Aditya Birla Nuvo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aditya Birla Nuvo. Show all posts

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Small Downfall Still Expected

As expected, the Nifty did go down today. During the day the Nifty did try to go up but could not go above yesterday’s close. It did manage to reach there but turned down again to close near the lows of the day.

Today we have the 30 minutes chart of Nifty with us. In the last 3 days we have seen that the Nifty has remained within a very narrow range. It may be consolidating within the range. What will happen after the consolidation is over is anybody’s guess. It has support between 5000 and 5010 and resistance between 5070 and 5075. This gives us a total range of 75 points. Once the Nifty decides to move outside this range then it gives us a target of another 75 points in the direction of the breakout. Of course, these targets can easily be overshot too depending on the momentum.

Let us look at the pros and cons of this range. The pros first. The Nifty had gone up about 450 points in the current rally, on the daily charts, without any meaningful correction. A correction/consolidation is healthy for the market. We want the Nifty to consolidate and catch up its breath before it starts running again. We don’t want it to keep running, become breathless and then collapse. So in that regard this consolidation will be good for the market and the results will be known once the Nifty crosses 5080.



And the cons? The latest rally, which was today’s rally, failed to reach its earlier highs near 5070-5080 and that signifies that there is weakness in the markets at higher levels. Another interesting observation on the charts is that it has made a small bearish/inverted head and shoulders pattern within this range. This pattern, though, has not been confirmed yet. A break below 5000 will confirm this pattern. The target for this bearish head and shoulders pattern will be about 4940. At this point, there seem to be more negatives than positives in the short term.

There are a few charts which are giving buy signals and have been discussed below. But one’s own discretion is required because we are expecting the broader market to come down a little. Please note that some of these stocks may be available at a cheaper rate in a day or two but the buying signals remain valid till the stop loss level is hit.

Aditya Birla Nuvo is showing some signs of improvement, as can be seen from this daily chart. What looks positive for the stock is the support for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, as marked by the circle. A move above 1500, which may or may not come tomorrow, should be positive for this textiles stock. A stop loss of 1375 will be prudent while waiting for a target of close to 1700, where it will meet the resistance line.

Arvind Mills, on the daily charts, has broken through its resistance line accompanied by huge volumes. This is bullish for the stock. The RSI is close to 80 and it is generally advised to wait for a pullback before buying. But seeing the chart, we can see that Arvind Mills has closed near the highs of the day without showing any signs of a pullback. Under these circumstances, it can be bought at the current levels with a stop below 50 for a target of between 65 and 67.

Hindustan Constructions has been moving within a narrow range between 110 and 140 since the last month and a half. It is now near the top of the range and may break out of this range. If it does it gives us a target of close to 170. A stop loss below 125 may be safe. But this stock should be bought only if it were to go above 140. Ignore the movements in the first 30 minutes as they are subject to volatile movements more because of global cues than because of technical or fundamental reasons.


Another very interesting chart of Jindal Steel. As can be seen from the chart, the price has been making lower highs while the RSI has been making highs at almost the same level, if not higher. This is known as a bullish/positive divergence when the price is going down but the RSI is going up. Now it is close to its resistance near 2300 after a pattern which looks like a double bottom formation. Not only that the RSI which was finding resistance near the line has broken through it which gives an indication that maybe the price will follow. Buy only if it crosses above 2300 with a stop loss of 2100 for a target somewhere close to 2750.

Petronet LNG has been in a narrow range between 60 and 80 for a better part of this calendar year. It now seems to have broken out of the range, while the volumes, though increasing, remain significantly low. Not the kind of volumes one would expect to see with a breakout. So, one can take a risk using her own discretion to buy near current levels with a stop loss near 74 for a target of near 100.

As mentioned in earlier newsletters, we are inviting our esteemed readers to send in their contributions in the form of articles to be published on this page. Take this opportunity to voice your opinions to the world about the fall today, the markets in general or anything remotely connected to the markets. Please e-mail your articles and don’t forget to mention your name and location so that you are given due credit for the article that is published.

Happy investing!!!
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Thursday, February 14, 2008

Short Term Trend Now Up

Today was a good day. Out of the many stocks recommended yesterday, some of them opened with such a huge gap that it made no sense to buy them at such high levels. At least four stocks reached their respective targets (we had recommended small targets of 3% in most of them), and most of the remaining ended the day with a small profit without touching their targets, thus leaving our positions open. Jindal Steel recommended on Monday is already giving us a profit of about 12% from our entry price and has come within scraping distance of our target of 2450 (entry price was 2100) and accordingly, we have increased our stop loss to 2300.

Today is a good day to discuss how to change our trading approach when the market opens with a gap up or gap down. Well, investors shouldn’t bother with gap openings because when one is investing for long term, a few rupees here and there would not make too much of a difference to their returns. For day-traders and swing traders, it definitely will. So, it is these traders who have to modify their strategies. It is best not to change your approach after market opening because that leads us to panic. Rather, make it a rule so that gap openings don’t bother you. If one follows these 10 simple rules, it will save them a lot of tension and ‘high BP’. The rules are as follows:
  1. Before the market opens, you should have pre-decided entry levels, stop losses and targets.
  2. Never enter a trade in the first 30 minutes.
  3. Enter a long position only if the price goes above the high of the previous 30 minutes. If it does not do that, just wait.
  4. Similarly, enter a short position only if the price goes below the low of the previous 30 minutes. If it does not do that, just wait.
  5. If you still haven’t entered the trade, again follow rule number 3 and 4.
  6. If the stop loss or the target is hit before the entry, just forget about the trade. Do not enter at all.
  7. If the difference between the target price and entry price is very low, and it seems that you are taking too much of a risk compared to the reward, do not take the trade.
  8. ALWAYS exit at your target. DO NOT be greedy.
  9. If at all you want to be greedy, at least close 50% of the position and be greedy on the remaining 50%. Modify the stop loss to your purchase price so that you don’t end up with a loss on the remaining 50%.
  10. If you are already in a trade (carried forward trade) and the market opens below your stop loss for the day, immediately close the trade.

Now, lets discuss the Nifty. As seen from the daily chart of Nifty above, there was some hope. The Nifty, which had on three consecutive days closed below the 200 day moving average, today managed to cross it and with quite a margin. This move changes the short term trend to up but the intermediate trend still remains down. The intermediate trend will change to up when the Nifty crosses the brown line (previous high), which happens to be at 5545. Meanwhile, it should also not cross below the previous low of 4800 or its 200 day moving average at 4992. Meanwhile, the Nifty now lies very close to its next resistance at 5260, as shown by the blue line.


Aditya Birla Nuvo seems to have broken out of this downtrending channel on its 30 minutes chart. This may be bullish for the stock. Consider buying above 1800 with a stop loss at 1760 for a target of 1880.


Hindustan Constructions, on its 60 minutes chart has formed an unconfirmed inverted head and shoulders pattern. This pattern would only be confirmed it the price were to go above 175 with high volumes. A good test of volumes would be to compare it with the current volumes. The current volumes, on an average are about 2.5 lakh shares every hour. So, if the volumes are about 4 or 5 lakh shares in an hour’s time, and the price is above 175 then it would be a good time to buy the stock. The stop loss should be set at 150 and 250 should be a reasonable target for this pattern, once it is confirmed.


IDFC has broken through this straight trendline on its 30 minutes chart. This trendline has been tested 6 times in the past 20-25 days (marked by the blue arrows). Only on two occasions has it given a false signal when it was breached without any resistance. It would make sense to buy it above 200 with a stop loss of 193 for a target near its previous recent highs of 215.

Besides these Indiabulls, LIC Housing Finance (above 280), State Bank of India and Welspun Gujarat (above 450) also seem to be good buying opportunities. The charts for these have not been given.


Happy investing!!!


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