Nifty at Crucial 4200 Support, Wait for Next Move

As expected the Nifty, after making a confirmed double top pattern on the 30 minutes chart, came down. Though, the target for this double top formation was 4160 but there was support on the daily charts at 4200. The Nifty respected this support, made a low of exactly 4200.15 and then recovered to end the day at 4228 to close 62 points down while the BSE Sensex ended the day with a loss of 323 points. European markets were good on Friday and ended the day with gains between a percent and 2 percent. The American markets, however, were flat. Crude also remained, more or less, flat and maintained support at $100 to end the day at $101.

Seen above is the daily chart of Nifty and, as can be seen, the Nifty has now reached the bottom end of the range at 4200. It is expected to find support at these levels, unless it proves otherwise. In the bottom half of the chart is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and that shows that it has not yet reached 40 (it is at 42, to be precise). The price at the support level and the RSI still above 40 may indicate that the support maybe respected by the markets. In case they don’t and 4200 is broken decisively on the charts then we may be staring at 3800 in the face.

Since we know that we are at the support level, this may be a good time to buy Nifty futures or Nifty calls. If the markets were to break 4200 then we shall close our long positions with a small loss. For the record, Nifty 4200 calls are trading at Rs.138/- while 4300 calls closed ar Rs.90/- per Nifty. The lot size happens to be 50 Nifties.

Update: The Rupee to Dollar exchange rate has moved up to Rs.46 to a dollar. Last time the dollar touched 46 was on Sep 29, 2006. Asian markets have opened and are trading weak with losses between 2 and 4 percent. Nifty in the Singapore market is 155 points down at 4070. Expect Nifty here too to break 4200. Do not take any long positions.

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Double Top Confirmed in Nifty, Target 4160

The Nifty, contrary to our prediction yesterday, went down today. The short term signs of bullishness were cancelled the moment Nifty opened below our stop loss of 4380. The Nifty continued to move down throughout the day and finally ended the day with a massive 110 point loss while the BSE Sensex lost 338 points in the day. The European markets closed roughly a percent and a half down while American markets at the time of writing were, more or less, flat with a slight negative bias. Crude continued to move down and bounced back from $100 today and is currently trading at $101.60 to a barrel.

The 30 minutes chart of the Nifty, shown above, shows that not only were the signs of bullishness cancelled on opening (as shown by the green arrow) but the next hour also confirmed a double top formation, which is also known as a ‘M’ formation or an inverted ‘W’ formation. This pattern has been marked on the chart with thick green lines. This double top pattern has its neckline at 4340 and the top at 4520, which means it could have a target 180 points below 4340 which converts to a target of 4160 on the charts. Also shown on the chart is the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD), which had given a sell signal on the afternoon of 8th Sep 2008, is still maintaining a sell. The stochastics oscillator (shown in yesterday’s chart), which had given a buy signal yesterday continues to maintain a buy position.

On the daily charts, as mentioned in previous posts, the Nifty is moving within a range of 4200-4650. A breakout out of this range should give us a tradeable move in the intermediate term. But will the prices break out of this range this time? Well, we can’t say at the moment because the markets have a mind of their own and will do what they want to do. But the principles of technical analysis tell us that we should follow a trend and that a trend is thought to be ‘innocent’ till it is proved ‘guilty’. In this case, the trend is that the price finds support at 4200. So, we shall assume that prices will find support again near 4200. But Vikas, you just said that the Nifty is now bearish and has a target of 4160. Well, yes, I did say that. The short term charts tell us that the Nifty should, rather may, come down to 4160 while the daily charts suggest that it will find support at 4200. Whenever there is such a situation, we shall follow what the longer term charts say. It is also possible that the Nifty may go below 4200 on an intraday basis and yet close above it. Or that it may go down to 4160 on one day and come back into the range on the next day. While we shall assume the Nifty to find support at 4200 but what the market actually wants to do will be known after the event. We shall change our strategy, if the need be, once the market decides to move against us. For now, it is support at 4200.

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Nifty Displays Short Term Bullishness

I feel great pleasure in informing you, my readers, that today happens to be my 200th post on this blog. What Brian Lara has done 9 times, Don Bradman 12 times, Rahul Dravid 5 times, Sachin Tendulkar and Sunil Gavaskar 4 times each (a score of 200 and above), I have done once :-). It's nice to be in this elite club of 200 and above.

The Nifty opened with a downward gap of about 50 points consequent to bad American and Asian markets. After some initial hitches and an hour of range bound trading, it staged a good recovery to fill the gap with which it had opened but at 12:30pm it started the southward journey once again and this time it was a consistent fall. A little bit of recovery in the last 30 minutes made the Nifty end the day with a loss of 68 points and the BSE Sensex closed 238 points in the red. In the international scene, as the things stand now (at the time of writing), crude, after making a low at $101.50, is now trading close to $102.50, FTSE closed about 50 points down, while Dow Jones is about 90 points in the green after a loss of 280 points yesterday.

Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. Along with the prices, at the bottom is shown the stochastics oscillator. As can be seen from the chart, the Nifty opened the day with a huge upward gap on 8th Sep 2008. This gap up opening was fully closed/filled today and it was then that the recovery came about in the last 30 minutes. Also shown on the chart is a small trading range within which the prices are moving for the last six days. This range is between 4340 and 4520. A move outside this range will give us a tradeable move in the short term. A trendline in black color has also been drawn on the chart connecting the pivot lows formed from 28th of last month till date. If one looks at the stochastics oscillator, one can see that a buy signal was given today in the last 30 minutes when the %K line (red) crossed the %D line (black) upwards, which is again a short term bullish sign. So, it makes sense to buy Nifty or Nifty calls for the short term with a stop loss of 4380.

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Nifty Forms Smaller Range Between 4350-4520

Hi readers, I had gone for a meeting today in Noida and came back home around midnight, so won't have much time to write the analysis. However, am sharing with you whatever little analysis I have managed to do today. Nifty opened weak today but then recovered during the day, even managed to cross yesterday's close but by closing time had dropped again to close in the red, thus forming a doji.

Attached above is the daily chart of the Nifty along with the trendlines and trend channel as shown in yesterday's chart. A new addition today is the stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. As seen by the stochastics, it has given a sell signal 3-4 days back and is continuing to show that a short position should be maintained. The MACD (not shown on the chart), on the other hand, still hovers around the signal line and is generating whipsaws. Whipsaws are natural when the markets themselves are confused. Dojis and trading ranges are signs of confusion and decision. As has been mentioned in the past few newsletters, a tradeable move would come only if the Nifty were to go above or below the 4200-4650 range. Looking closely at the prices, one can find that a smaller trading range between 4350 and 4520 has formed in the last five days. Short term traders may like to trade a range breakout from 4350-4520, depending on which side it breaks out on. As can be seen by the trendline, the Nifty has yet again failed to cross this resistance line. This is proving to be quite a resistance.

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Markets Jump as Freddie and Fannie Bailed Out

The Nifty today, as was expected, opened about 150 points in the green after the NSG approved the nuclear deal in India’s favour. There was also the news from America that the Government had taken over mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which had issued debt worth $1.4 trillion, and the bailout of which would require about $200 billion. Both were good news from the market’s point of view which is why it opened in the green today. At the time of writing this newsletter the Dow Jones is up almost 200 points, but has come off its highs. The same thing happened with the Indian markets earlier in the day. After a very good opening, the prices did sustain most of the day but started coming off in the final hour of the day. The day remained good enough for the Nifty to close 130 points in the green while the BSE Sensex ended the day with a gain of 461 points.

Attached above is the daily chart of the Nifty. It is similar to the chart shown yesterday except that the ADX indicator has been removed and the MACD has now been shifted to the bottom portion of the chart. Looking at the price today in correlation to the resistance line CD, we notice that the price did go above the resistance line intraday but lost enough to close below it. The ADX indicator, though not shown in the chart today, still remains unchanged at 11 and the Nifty continues to be rangebound between 4200 and 4650, as marked by the black rectangle. As regards the MACD, the MACD line still stays close to the signal line, though slightly above it while both the lines are just above the equilibrium line of 0. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI, which again is not shown here) remains neutral the MACD is giving slightly bullish signs.

News from the crude front too remains positive. After rising to above $109 levels intraday it has now slipped back to $105.50. A negative crude should be good for the global equity markets.

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Trending Move May Come Soon Enough

The Times of India newspaper on Sunday came out with a very interesting headline which read “India N-abled” With the NSG giving their decision in favour of India, the 34 year long period of ‘nuclear apartheid’ has ended for India. The report also said that India now has the unique status of being the only nuclear weapons power to be allowed global nuclear commerce without signing either the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) or Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which until now was a precondition for entering the elite nuclear club.

Ex-president and a prominent nuclear scientist, Mr. APJ Abdul Kalam says that the NSG waiver is good for India and that the country can choose to break the ‘voluntary moratorium’ on further tests in ‘supreme national interest’. He does not talk about the implications, though. Maybe, that would lead to another few decades of nuclear apartheid, but come to think of it, if that does happen we would not be any worse than what we already are. So, this NSG waiver is in the ultimate national interest of the country. This should be good news for the markets and we may see them go up on Monday, which may, eventually, take us outside the upper end of the range at 4650. According to Mr. Sudarshan Sukhani, the reality is that the deal itself is just a small help to the massive task of uplifting Indian poor to a better standard of living and that it is likely to play an insignificant part in the removal of poverty. Yet, he feels that the reality to be realized by the markets could take long enough to give us time to break out of 4600-4650 zone and reach 5100-5200 levels.

Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty. I have added a lot of tools to the chart today and I hope it does not become very confusing for my readers. Superimposed on the prices, in brown, is the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) which shows that it is now close to its signal line and has still not decided whether to go above these levels or to come below those. Hopefully, we should have an answer in a day or two, though the positive news already seems to have given the answer. Second, I have marked the recent range within which the Nifty seems to be moving, i.e. between 4200-4650. As is obvious from the range, there is support at 4200 and resistance at 4650. We can get a tradeable move in the intermediate trend only if the market were to come out of this range, upwards or downwards. Third, I have drawn a downtrending line marked AB which will provide resistance to the prices if it does decide to break above the upper end of the range at 4650. Fourth, I have drawn a line parallel to AB and have marked it as CD. This line, as can be seen, has been providing support/resistance at various levels in the last eight months. Surprising how just a line parallel to a trendline can do that. The most recent resistance was provided at 4515 on Thursday. Will it provide resistance again tomorrow or will this line be crossed and then become the support, is yet to be seen. In the bottom part of the chart I have attached the ADX indicator which, as mentioned in earlier newsletters, reflects the speed of a trend and extreme levels, such as those below 15, represent that one particular trend may now pick up momentum and the markets could follow that trend. However, it fails to give the direction of the trend and other indicators have to be seen to ascertain which way the trend is likely to shape up. The simplest way to find that out is to see which side of the trading range the Nifty breaks out on. The ADX value for the Nifty on Friday was 11 and never has the ADX reached such extreme levels, at least not in the last two years. We should soon see a big trending move come about.

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Nuke Deal on Tenterhooks

The Nifty on Monday suddenly started rising at around noon time when the crude oil, which had been respecting the $110 support level for quite some time, came to $107 levels. The break of this important support level for crude meant that more downside could be seen in crude. And what is negative for crude turns out to be good for the equity markets. This sent the Indian equity markets skyrocketing and the Nifty, for the last hour and a half, remained above 4500 to finally close at 4504, a gain of 155 points.

News from the crude front still remains good as it continues to trade in the vicinity of $108 today. But the news from the world over has turned negative. Today was a holiday in the Indian markets on account of Ganesh Chaturthi and while the Indian traders were enjoying a quiet holiday here, the traders in Asia and Europe were busy selling. All Asian markets, with the exception of Nikkei, closed between a percent and two percent down. The European markets met with the same fate today when they opened. The US markets, surprisingly, were only half a percent down today.

Suddenly, once again, the nuke deal seems to be of the prime importance for the time being. According to a letter written on January 16 earlier this year by Late Mr. Tom Lantos, the then Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which was made public by the current Chairman Howard Berman, the US has the right to stop nuclear fuel supply to India altogether should it conduct another nuclear test. And all the time the Manmohan Singh government has been claiming that the deal in any way would not prevent India from conducting any more nuclear tests. As per the US Ambassador David C Mulford, there is nothing new in the letter made public today and that New Delhi was kept in the loop all the time. And the UPA government sources say that they are aware of the current US policy. Now, what does that mean? That in spite of knowing about these restrictions, the government was going ahead with the deal, thus jeopardizing the country’s national security, and all the while keeping the opposition and the Indian public in the dark? And worst of all, the US State Department had asked the US Congress to keep the letter a secret because the information was so ‘sensitive’ that it could have toppled the Manmohan Singh government.

I am sure the Indian public has some questions to ask the UPA government. Was the deal so important that they could goahead with it in spite of knowing that their hands would be tied when it came to the security of the country? If it was, then why was the government making repeated assurances that their hands would not be tied? And if it knew about these restrictions, why was the public and the opposition kept in dark about this? Does it not feel ashamed now that the findings have become public? Please, readers, I need some comments from you. Am I wrong in asking these questions? Would you not ask the same questions? Or would you agree with what the government has done? Are there any American readers here? What do you, the people of America, feel about the India US Nuke Deal?

With this news coming out today, I feel there is no way, if the government has any shame left, that the deal can be operationalised in the current form. And if it can not be operationalised and if all the Asian and European markets are down, there is no way the Indian markets can ignore all of this. So, the Indian markets are bound to come down tomorrow, unless something drastic happens overnight.

Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty and as can be seen, the Nifty is now heading towards the upper end of the range at 4650. As of now, the chances are quite bright that the markets would open with a negative gap tomorrow. Would that mean a return line failure, which means that the prices would fail to reach the upper end of the range? That would mean that the RSI would find resistance near 60, which means there is no strength in the markets. And that means no weakness either, because in trading ranges the RSI is expected to move between 40 and 60, or maybe 35 and 65. This implies that we are now again looking at a support near 4200. And a retest of that support after a return line failure could mean that the test may fail support may break.

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4200 Provides Support, Nifty Trend Remains Sideways

The Nifty opened with a good positive gap on Friday and continued to reach higher levels throughout the day on Friday. In earlier posts it has been mentioned that the Nifty would should, find support at the lower end of the rectangle which happens to be at 4200. The low touched on Thursday was 4201. The 30 minutes chart had shown a breakdown through a symmetrical triangle, the target for which was 4160, which coincided with the most recent pivot low formed on the daily charts (4159). So, it was expected that the range between 4160 and 4200 would provide good support. And 4201 happens to be the level from where the Nifty turns back.

Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As seen in the chart above, the RSI has found support at 40 at the same time as the Nifty found support near the lower end of the trend channel at 4200. This seems to be a short term bullish for the markets and as mentioned in Thursday’s post, the outlook for the future remains the same since the Nifty is still locked between the range of 4200-4650. In short, in the very short term further downside may have been avoided for now but from a short to a medium term perspective, the trend remains sideways. A clear direction would be known only after one of these ranges. For now, we shall wait for the Nifty to reach 4650, or for the point where there is a return line failure. A failure to reach either the top or the bottom of a trend channel is known as a return line failure.

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Nifty Breaks Down Further, Support Between 4160-4200

Exactly like yesterday, the Nifty opened flat today and almost immediately started losing ground but stabilized soon and then went into a narrow range and kept trading in those levels for most of the day. The bears, finally, took the index below the lows of the day when only an hour of trading was left and the index ended the day about 78 points in the red. The Nifty still remains locked inside a range of 4200-4650. As mentioned in earlier posts, a clear trend would come about if this range is broken on one of the sides. Or when the ADX indicator line starts rising again. This line seems to be stabilizing near 14. Such extremes are rare in the ADX and this clearly shows that a trending should now come about soon enough.

Seen above is the daily chart of Nifty and shows the range within which the index remains locked. The lower end of the range is shown at 4200. However, as explained in yesterday’s post, the index has broken a symmetrical triangle within which it was moving on the downside. The target for this downside breakout is 4160. If we look at the chart above and notice the pivot low which was formed in the end of July, the value happens to be 4159. So, this 4160-4200 range may provide good support to the Nifty. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), we find that it is now very close to 40. If the RSI does find support near 40, it may mean that all is not lost yet. A breakdown below this range of 4160-4200 should definitely take the RSI below 40 and that would be negative for the markets, and we could be looking at 4000 or 3800 then. Alternatively, if the Nifty were to find support near these levels and the RSI near 40, then the outlook remains, more or less, the same that we would still be in a sideways market but would be saved from the downside, for some time at least.

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Nifty Breaks Symmetrical Triangle On The Downside

The Nifty opened with a small upwards gap today and almost immediately started losing ground. It then went into a very narrow range of about 20 points and kept trading in those levels for the better part of the day. The bears, finally, took the index below that narrow range of 20 points when only an hour of trading was left and the index ended the day about 45 points in the red. The result is still the same, the Nifty locked inside a range of 4200-4650. As mentioned in earlier posts, a clear trend would come about if this range is broken on one of the sides. Or when the ADX indicator line starts rising again. This line was showing a value of 15 yesterday and today it has fallen further to 14. Such extremes are rare in the ADX and this clearly shows that a trending should now come about soon enough.

If we look at the charts in the posts written yesterday and the day before that, we would notice that the Nifty first made a gravestone doji (a bearish signal), and the next day it formed a dragonfly doji (a bullish sign) and today it fell down. A number of days before those dojis too it had been making red and blue candles on alternating days. A clear signal that the markets are confused and do not know which direction to take. That explains the narrow range that we are locked into.

Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty and shows the short term trend of the market. As seen above this narrow range that the Nifty was locked into during the last one week was in the form of a symmetrical triangle. The apex of the triangle was reached today and the Nifty saw a breakthrough on the downside. The target for this breakdown is close to 4160. It is quite possible that the Nifty may complete a pullback to 4370 again before falling further. That rise could be used to take short positions (or to exit longs) in the short term.

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