Sunday, February 17, 2008

Base Building 'On' in Most Stocks

The Nifty, on Friday, remained a little range bound in the first half of the day but after noon, once it was able to cross the day’s highs, it consistently went up. The Nifty now has reasonable resistance at 5350 levels, still about 60 points away from Nifty’s close.
On the way up the Nifty managed to break its resistance level (marked by the blue line) and signified that it was no longer in a downtrend. Not only that, the pattern formed on this 30-minutes chart before the breakout tells us that the target for the Nifty could now be 5750. But there is another very important thing visible here. And that is the presence of the two dojis (open and close near the same price) at the end of the chart (in the red circle). It has been explained in earlier newsletters that dojis represent uncertainty and that they are formed, generally, near short term market tops/market bottoms. If this were to be true, we could see the Nifty coming down tomorrow. Fortunately, support is not too far away and should find support near the blue line, i.e. between 5200-5210.
Balrampur Chini is currently in a base-building phase and once it breaks through the upper trendline, it should be a good time to buy. Unfortunately, in such kind of patterns, the risk reward ratio is 1:1, which means that the stop loss is as far as the target. But to get rewards, one has to take the risk. So, a buy above 93 with a stop loss of 75 should take us to a target near 112-113.
BHEL has broken through one trendline and is currently facing resistance from another one on its daily chart. But if this resistance is crossed too then it should go up to its next resistance line between 2600-2700. Buy above 2315 with a stop loss of 2050.
Sesa Goa is also making a base on its daily charts after a sharp decline and is now standing at its resistance. It has also broken a downtrending line on the RSI. This resistance line (on the price chart), which means above 3250 could give us a target of around 3700. A stop loss of 2800 seems reasonable at the moment. But the important thing is that will Sesa Goa break through its trendline tomorrow? Maybe, it could, but there are two negatives here which are pointing against it. One is the doji made on the chart on the Friday, which suggests that this could be a short term market top and the other is the reasonably low and declining volumes, which accompanied the price increase in the last 4 days.
Tata Steel is near its 5 month old resistance line on its daily chart and prices going above this trendline could be bullish for this steel stock. One could buy it above 830 with a stop loss at 700 for a target of somewhere close to 970.

Happy investing!!!


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