Finally, I’m back after a long break but can’t say for how long! I’ve had a pretty bad case of an infection which is just refusing to leave. After 4 days of antibiotics being injected into me, the high fever ranging between 103-104 degrees Fahrenheit seems to have relented. But I’ve also been having this real bad pain in the back (which, according to the doctors is related to the infection) which gives in only to painkillers and that too for only 4-5 hours. The bad part is that I can take the next doze of the painkiller only 8 hours after the previous doze and the last 3 hours are just unbearable. Today, I have taken the painkiller about 3 hours ago and I have about another hour or so to finish before I start getting the pains again. Hope I can finish what I have to say in that much time otherwise I’ll have to just upload it midway. So please excuse an abrupt ending to this edition, if there is any.
Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. As per the last analysis that I had done I had suggested that if the Nifty were to go above 4560, it could go on to find resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 4675. It just so happened that the Nifty made a high of 4673.10 today before it changed its direction and started its move down.
Let us take a look at the daily chart of the Nifty and also look at the previous Elliott Wave Count analysis done on 3rd June, 2008. This analysis had talked about the Nifty being in the corrective wave C in which the waves A-B-C are following the 3-3-5 formation which means 3 waves each in waves A and B and 5 waves in wave C. The Nifty seems to be moving as per our analysis and now seems to have completed wave 4 and has probably started the fifth wave down of the corrective wave C today. The end of this wave shall signify the end of the bear trend. Considering this 5th wave to be as long as the first wave of this corrective wave C, we get a minimum target of 4295 and maximum of 3882 for the end of the 5th wave. Anything outside these levels would signify that our wave counting has gone awry. I, personally, am looking at a target in the vicinity of 4100.Please do subscribe to my posts, so that all posts are delivered free to your inbox and you don't miss any useful analysis of the markets in the future.
Happy Investing!!!
4 comments:
thank you for the chart analysis it's very useful...I hope the fever subsides, please take rest as much as you can.
Hope the market is treating you well, these are testing times even for the long-term investor.
Dear Vikas,
Sorry that I did not notice that you were unwell. I hope you have recovered.
It seems that the wave C has behaved the way you had anticipated and has confirmed to the values that you estimated. (AND THOSE WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE. HATS OFF TO YOU.)
Now please let the bloggers (that includes me also as I have slowly started to admire the accuracy of your analysis despite the unpredictable nature of the variables that may affect the index) know the likely move of the nifty from hereon.
Thanks
Thanks, Dinesh, for your nice comments. All I can say is that the markets have been fairly kind to me by conforming to my analysis. Usually, the markets have a habit of making a fool out of analysts.
Well, technical analysis is surely an art. Learning the principles of technical analysis does not get you anywhere but years of experience analysing markets surely helps. In my case, it is the last decade that I spent learning technical analysis that is paying off now.
Vikas.
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